If you google ‘how much does it cost to end world hunger?’ the first results you will find provide figures ranging from $7 billion to $265 billion per year.
I will start this post reiterating the same point I make in each of my posts – as one of it’s sustainable development goals the UN has committed to ending world hunger by 2030 but with progress and investment continuing at current levels, come 2030 there will still be approximately 600 million people undernourished globally.
Models predict that by 2030 there will still be 74 countries with hunger levels above 5% of the population (for reference hunger levels currently in the UK are around 2%), highlighting the need for significant intervention and investment if the 2030 zero hunger target is to be met. 56 of these countries are not expected to have sufficient domestic funds to address the problem and so will require increased external donor contributions – these high priority countries being primarily in Africa and areas where conflict and climate change have added to food insecurity and hunger levels (these countries are highlighted in red in the diagram below).
So exactly how much would it cost to end hunger globally?
Benefits and the Private Sector
Before diving into various models that look at the investment needed over the next 10+ years, I first wanted to look at the benefits that eradicating hunger brings, why unfortunately we can not rely on the private sector and hence need to look at increased public support and investment to bring about these benefits.
The most obvious and greatest benefit is undoubtedly the impact on the lives of the hungry and malnourished, including preventing the 9 million deaths that we still see every year that result from hunger and hunger-related diseases. Additionally, for those looking for a return on any investment made towards the goal of ending hunger, the improved stability and education levels in the world’s poorer communities that will result is expected to drive 0.5% global GDP growth (~$300bn) with up to 6% growth in countries most impacted by hunger.
Despite these macroeconomic benefits, the beneficial impact on specific industries are not great enough to drive the required private investment to bring about the change we want to see in the next 10 years. This is as ultimately:
1) A large portion of the goods and services that are needed are public goods, such as rural roads, in which private investors would not invest
2) The size of investment needed is too great to be supported by private investors
3) Natural monopolies exist within some areas that require investment, such as irrigation systems, with the goals and model of the monopoly not aligning to what brings the most benefit to those utlising their goods or services
4) The timeframe to see a return on investment can be extremely long and hence unattractive to private investors
It therefore falls on additional public investment from countries across the globe in order to meet the 2030 zero hunger target.
The Cost to End World Hunger
If you google ‘how much does it cost to end world hunger?’ the first results you will find provide figures ranging from $7 billion to $265 billion per year, above and beyond what is already spent today.
These figures ultimately derive from a number of different studies and mathematical models and whilst their values range significantly (we will take a look at why below) they are all consistent in a number of areas of investment, including:
- Closing the poverty gap and raising incomes above the poverty line
- Increased R&D / innovation
- Agriculture – from improving water management to agroprocessing operations
- Improved infrastructure throughout developing countries, particularly in transportation (roads, trains etc) and rural electrification
- Market access (enabled by improved infrastructure) and efficiency
The below table summarises the four main studies/models which make up the $7-265 billion range, primarily differing so significantly in cost due to how their aims are defined:
The ‘achieving zero hunger approach’ ($265bn) and ‘IFRIs impact model’ ($52bn) – notably the most expensive two – look to be the more comprehensive and more direct in addressing the cost to end world hunger. They seem to differ in cost largely because of what each looks to achieve (0% vs <5%).
These figures are understandably large given the scale of global change required but that makes this a problem and cost for which the burden is a global one. Putting these figures into context alongside investments in other areas and other global spends this seems to be a commitment that should be achievable. For example:
- Annual military expenditure: $1.8 trillion ($600bn from the USA)
- Total economic damage of smoking: $1.4 trillion per year
- Value of food wasted annually: $2.6 trillion
- Global spending / planned budgets to tackle COVID-19: $1.8 trillion (the global response and commitment to tackle Coronavirus has been incredible and a truly great, precedent setting demonstration of what can be achieved when there is a combined global will to tackle a problem!)
Wider Challenges
Looking back at my first post (Growing Hunger and the Potential of Technology) these models and costs address some of the biggest challenges:
- A rapidly increasing world population
- Increased competition for natural resources
- Plateauing agricultural productivity
- Persistent poverty, inequality and food insecurity
- Persisting food losses and waste
However, notably they do not deal with 2 factors that have been driving the increase in global hunger levels in recent years:
- Increased conflicts, crises and natural disasters
- Climate change (only IFRI’s IMPACT model considers this)
Climate change worsens food and nutrition security and because of it the number of people at risk of hunger is projected to increase by 70 million people by 2030 compared to a world without climate change.
Conflict has further consequences; disrupting food supplies and displacing large populations (over 70mn people are currently forcibly displaced worldwide). Based on current trends, the absolute number of people in conflict-affected areas facing certain key deprivations will rise significantly, including the number of undernourished people rising by 84.5 million. By 2030 these people are likely to remain in hunger and undernourished.
Large investment is needed but is not enough
To fundamentally reduce hunger levels to 0 (or very close to) by 2030 the $265bn a year figure looks to give the best indication of scale of investment required but this figure likely falls short of the amount required, given the increasing challenges of climate change and conflict. Unfortunately, these 2 challenges in particular highlight that, whilst necessary, just pumping money into solving this problem will not be sufficient and this will need to be delivered in parallel to significant global behavioural and policy changes to counteract the factors that continue to drive instability in the world’s poorest regions.
Sources:
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/132266
/www.globalgiving.org/learn/how-much-would-it-cost-to-end-world-hunger/
www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2018/
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/131144
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/ending-hunger-what-would-it-cost
https://www.odi.org/publications/11194-sdg-progress-fragility-crisis-and-leaving-no-one-behind
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